Author: wiseclerk

Review of My Bondora Loan Portfolio After Q4/2014

wiseclerk 8 Comments

In October 2012 I started p2p lending at Bondora. Since then I periodically wrote on my experiences – you can read my last report here. Since the start I did deposit 14,000 Euro (approx. 17,000 US$). My portfolio is very diversified. Most loan parts I hold are for loan terms between 36 and 60 months. Together the loans add up to 19,528 Euro outstanding principal. Loans in the value of 2,158 Euro are overdue, meaning they (partly) missed one or two repayments. 1,853 Euro principal is stuck in loans that are more than 60 days late. I already received 10,316 Euro in repaid principal back – this figures includes loans Bondora cancelled before payout. I reinvested all repayments.


Chart 1: Screenshot of loan status

At the moment I have 280 Euro in bids in open market listings and 3 Euro cash available.


Chart 2: Screenshot of account balance

Return on Invest

Currently Isepankur shows my ROI to be over 27.56%. In my own calculations, using XIRR in Excel, assuming that 30% of my 60+days overdue and 15% of my overdue loans will not be recovered, my ROI calculations result in 25.0%. Continue reading →

News Coverage of the Lending Club IPO

wiseclerk

Yesterday was a very exciting day for Lending Club and p2p lending as a whole. I must say I was awed when I saw the opening price of around 25 US$ as that put the company valuation around 9 billion US$. Looking through the coverage the excitement is certainly shared:

The venture capital companies that backed Lending Club will be excited too (see graphic).

The Position of Lending Club at IPO

wiseclerk

The long announced IPO of marketplace lender Lending Club is imminent now, with the first day of trading expected to be around Dec. 10th.

Lending Club will issue 57.7 million new shares priced in the range of 10 to 12 US$. On the upper end this means the company will have a valuation of around 4.4 billion US$. At the same time existing shareholders will offer 7.7 million new share for sale.
Lending Club did not forget it roots. At the begin of the astonishing growth curve it were the small retail investors that funded all the Lending Club loans. So now Lending Club has reserved 10% of the new shares and offered them to these retail investors through a ‘Directed Share Programs’ via Fidelity Investments. For each investor a certain amount of shares (mostly 350) was reserved and offered.

Aside from the IPO financials the big news is the strong position Lending Club has built in the p2p lending market:


Source of all images: Lending Club

Lending Club showed strong growth every quarter.

Continue reading →

International P2P Lending Services – Loan Volumes November 2014

wiseclerk 1 Comment

November was a month of mixed results for the listed p2p lending services. Some grew, some had a small decline in newly originated loan volume this month. Ratesetter crossed a total volume of 400 million GBP originated since inception. Ablrate profited from the deal with the first institutional investor, which boosted volume. I added one more service.  I do monitor development of p2p lending figures for many markets. Since I already have most of the data on file I can publish statistics on the monthly loan originations for selected p2p lending services.


Table: P2P Lending Volumes in November 2014. Source: own research
Note that volumes have been converted from local currency to Euro for the sake of comparison. Some figures are estimates/approximations.

Notice to p2p lending services not listed:
If you want to be included in this chart in future, please email the following figures on the first working day of a month: total loan volume originated since inception, loan volume originated in previous month, number of loans originated in previous month, average nominal interest rate of loans originated in previous month.

Lending Club Valuation at IPO 4.33B Max.

wiseclerk

For the coming Lending Club IPO a recent SEC filing reveals details on the valuation of the company.

LendingClub Corporation is offering 50,000,000 shares of its common stock and the selling stockholders are offering 7,700,000 shares of common stock. We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling stockholders. This is our initial public offering and no public market currently exists for our shares of common stock. We anticipate that the initial public offering price will be between $10.00 and $12.00 per share.

After the IPO there will be 361,111,491 shares of common stock outstanding at Lending Club so at 12 US$ per share this will result in a 4.33 US$ billion valuation. Read more details on Lend Academy.

Growth of Bondora Resale Market

wiseclerk

This post is based on the findings, which German investor ‘Bandit55555’ posted in his own blog p2p-anlage.de. ‘Bandit55555’ is the investor at Bondora with the highest ROI (at least that I am aware of): He calculates his XIRR ROI to be 35.4%, while Bondora displays 57.5% for his portfolio. He achieves that by very diligently using the public download data supplied by Bondora as a basis for his investing and trading. In fact he even developed his own scoring system based on the data.

The secondary market of p2p lending marketplace Bondora was introduced in March 2013. Right now more than 24,400 loan parts are on sale. Using the data Bondora makes publicly available for download the following charts were created.


Number of loans sold on Bondora’s secondary market. Source p2p-anlage.de, reproduced here with permission. Continue reading →